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Horncastle Buy-To-Let Predictions up to 2037

Article Simon Jory 2017-07-01
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Horncastle Buy-To-Let Predictions up to 2037

On several occasions over the last few months, in my Horncastle Property Blog, I predicted that the rate of rental inflation (i.e. how much rents are rising by) had eased over the last year. At the same time, I felt that, in some parts of the UK rents have actually dropped for the first time in over eight years. Recent research backs up this prediction.

Rents in Horncastle for new tenancies only grew by 3.3% in the last 12 months (i.e. not existing tenants experiencing rental increases from their existing landlord). When we compare that current rate with the historical rental inflation in Horncastle, an interesting pattern emerges ..

  • 2016 - Rental Inflation in Horncastle was 7.9%
  • 2015 - Rental Inflation in Horncastle was 3.0%
  • 2014 - Rental Inflation in Horncastle was 3.9%

The reason behind this change depends on which side of the demand/supply equation you are looking from. On the demand side, (from the tenants point of view), there is the uncertainty of Brexit and the fact that salaries are not keeping up with inflation for the first time in three years. Crucially, this means tenants have less disposable income to pay their rent. As an aside, it is interesting to note that nationally, rent accounts for 29% of a tenant's take home pay.

On the supply side of the equation, (landlords point of view), Brexit creates uncertainty. However, the biggest issue was a massive upsurge of new rental properties coming on to the market in late 2016, caused by George Osborne's new 3% stamp duty tax for landlords in the first part of 2016. This meant a lot of new rental properties were 'dropped' on to the rental market all at the same time. The greater choice of rental properties for tenants curtailed rental growth/inflation. A slight softening of Horncastle property prices has compounded this. Figures from The Bank of England suggested that first time buyers rose over the last 12 months, as some were more inclined to buy instead of rent. Together, these factors played a part in the ongoing moderation of rental growth.

The lead up to the General Election in May didn't help: after all people don't like doubt and uncertainty. So now that we have a mandate for going forward over the next 5 years, hopefully, that has removed any stumbling blocks stopping tenants making the decision to move home.

Whether it be 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit negotiations (and with the Election result the Tory's might have to be 'softer' on those negotiations) the simple fact is, we aren't building enough properties for us to live in. Both in Horncastle, the East Midlands and the wider UK, long-term population trends imply that rents will soon be growing faster than inflation again. Look at the projections by the Office of National Statistics.

Population Estimates for East Lindsey District Council over the next 20 years
2016 (actual)2021202620312036
138,472141,339144,490147,237149,588
Population Estimates for East Lindsey District Council over the next 20 years

Tenants will still require a vibrant and growing rental sector to deliver them housing options in a timely manner. As the population grows in Horncastle, and wider afield, any restriction to the supply of rental properties (brought about by poor returns for landlords) cannot be in the long-term best interest of tenants. Simply put rents must go up!

The fact is, that I see, this as a short-term blip and rents will continue to grow in the coming years. With rents only accounting for 29% of a tenants' disposable income, the ability for most tenants to absorb a rent increase does exist.

Sources:

  1. Stats on Rental Growth for your region combining the LSL/Homelet and LSL index's
  2. Population Growth from Office of National Stats
  3. Rent as proportion of salary - combination of Homelet and other stat sources
  4. Rental figure from ZPG

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Simon Jory

Simon Jory

Simon has been in Estate Agency for over 32 years and is a Fellow of the National Association of Estate Agents. Having working in all kinds of changing market conditions he is well placed to advise on how best to sell your home.

Anne Pearce

Anne Pearce

Anne prides herself on working to the highest standards and believes everyone should receive the best possible customer service. With over 20 years' experience she will not miss and opportunity.

Dawn Bannister-Law

Dawn Bannister-Law

Prior to moving to Lincolnshire, Dawn was a valuer for more than 19 years in Bakewell in the Peak District. Dawn strongly believes buyers, sellers, landlords or tenants are all as important as each other

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